ВИБІР МЕТОДІВ ОЦІНЮВАННЯ ФІНАНСОВОЇ БЕЗПЕКИ БАНКІВ ТА ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ ІНДИКАТОРІВ

Abstract

In times of economic and political crisis, martial law on the territory of our state, the issue of security arises both for everyone individually and for the country as a whole. The national security of the state and the level of its economic development directly depends on a number of factors, including the level of financial security of the banking system. To prevent risks and possible negative consequences from the influence of various processes on the financial condition of the banking sector, it is necessary to analyze and evaluate the level of its security. Despite the presence of a large number of scientific works, analytical and statistical reports, regulatory documents, which contain the definition of the concept of assessing the financial security of banks, the definition still remains ambiguous. It is for this reason that the analysis of the existing models for assessing the financial security of banks becomes extremely relevant, because thanks to this, new assessment methods can be developed taking into account the already present consequences of the crisis situation and war. This study provides information on methods of effective assessment of financial security of banks. The procedure for calculating the level of financial security of banks has also been determined, an assessment of the financial security of Ukrainian banks has been carried out, the results of which characterized its level as unsatisfactory, which is negative for our state and signals the need to apply certain measures to regulate this situation. It was found that the main negative factors affecting the financial security of banks from 2019 to August 2022 are the pandemic and the war, which caused a number of negative consequences for the social, economic, political and financial state of the state. The article carried out calculations based on the method of determining coefficients and indicators with a forecast of data for the next period using a mathematical model of dynamics series and substantiated the use of such an approach for the effective assessment of the level of financial security of banks and its forecast for the following periods.