Long-term demographic factor of political unrest in contemporary states

Abstract

The paper is an attempt to estimate the influence of long-term structural-demographic factors on political stability in contemporary transitive states such as Ukraine. Interpretation of this synergetic factor is lean on the modified "structurally-demographic" approach of A.Korotayev and J.Goldstone. The synergetic order parameter, which determines the unrest of the political process in modern transitive states is defined. It is proposed to consider the rate of annual growth in the number of young people mostly with higher or incomplete higher education in large and medium cities as such parameter. The actual index of this order parameter for the Ukrainian political process of the first and second decade of the twenty-first century should be considered an annual growth rate of urban youth age range 21 - 25 years. It is stated that the background of its influence is a rapid annual increase in coverage of the population by means of effective communication not mediated by government intervention (mobile communications, and especially cable and mobile Internet). The structure of the author’s model of political instability in Ukraine, based on the abovementioned grounds, is described. The model reflects the period from 1989 and provides the possibility to give the prognosis of a threat to political stability till 2039. An algorithm for computing the function of political unrest depends on the rate of growth of urban youth were built in such a way that as a result a conditional integer status indicator of political stability was obtained. The author’s forecast of political instability in Ukraine until 2039 is described.