Abstract:
The text is an attempt to estimate changes in the
potential sources and targets of international
migration (countries with a modern population
quantity of more than 5 million was taken into
account) in accordance with the prognoses of
change of population quantity until 2050. The
the author attempted to estimate the change in the
“difference of potentials of an available population
by countries”. The research leans on three
scenarios of demographic development as offered
by the UN – low, medium and high.
To the best of the author’s knowledge, the
model created by the author is one of the
few models of global international migration
based on a synergistic approach. With the help
of the created model in the course of consistent
iterations, matrices were developed of
paired indexes of the mutual attractiveness
of countries for migrants for every
fifth year from 2020 to 2050. Based on
these matrices and in accordance with the
UN’s proposed scenarios of demographic
development, three scenarios were
constructed for forecasting trends and
volumes of legal migration for every five
years to 2050 among all countries taken
into consideration. The predicted values
were determined for the total number
of international migrants in each of the
countries by 2050.
The conclusion is that there are stable
migration directions which are not limited
to the direction of “South-North”. It was
also determined that there is no fundamental
the difference in the forecasted migration directions
according to each of the UN scenarios.
The results of the forecasting and some
supplementary materials to this article are
available online.
