Abstract:
The subject of this paper is international migration into EU countries. The research objective
is a quantitative estimation of the volume of international migration flows into European countries and
their close neighbors until 2050. The forecast of international migration flows is based on the author’s
own model of global international migration. The model is based on a synergetic approach and assumptions
that the level of migration is determined first of all by the number of existing migrants from that
country. The data used for the forecast is UN data on migration flows in 1990–2015, and the UN’s predictions
regarding changes in population between now and 2050. The forecast is based on the medium
scenario of demographic development offered by the UN. Countries with a current population of more
than 5 million are taken into consideration as potential sources of immigration. The predicted values of
the total number of international migration flows to each of the EU and neighboring countries for each
five-year period until 2050 are determined. The predicted migration flows from EU countries are also
determined. It is concluded that the forecasts allow us to claim that the problem of migration will continue
for EU countries. However, the essence of this problem is not the prevention of excess migration,
but attracting migrants to the countries of the ‘second Europe.’
