Аннотации:
The paper is an attempt to estimate the influence of synergy in the long-term parameter
of order in the nature of political processes in the Russian Federation in
the third decade of the 21st century. Two interpretations of this synergetic parameter
are proposed – one is based on I. Prigogine’s idea that every dissipative system
experiences periods of deterministic and non-deterministic chaos. It incorporates
a combination of time and the population of the state. The other is based on the
modified ‘structurally-demographic’ approach of A. Korotayev and J. Goldstone.
We consider the rate of annual growth in the number of urban young people as
such a parameter is proposed. We predict that the Russian Federation will enter
into the next period of indeterministic chaos due to the synergetic parameter of
order in the next 33-40 years from the last point of bifurcation in 1991. Thus,
we forecast the imminent onset of the next period of non-deterministic chaos in
the Russian Federation in the second half of the third decade of the 21st century.
An influence of several factors on the accuracy of the prognosis of political instability
is assessed. It is stated that the probability of political instability in the
Russian Federation in the years 2025-2030 caused by synergetic and structural-demographic
parameters of the order will decrease under the additional influence of
open borders and the high demand for jobs in the military services.
Описание:
Стаття у виданні "Politeja", academic journal published by the Faculty of International and Political Studies of the Jagiellonian University in Kraków, Poland.
