Аннотации:
The paper assesses the suitability of J. Davies’ model for the simulation of protest
activity. The authors make an attempt to show the proximity of J. Davies’ model
and synergetic paradigm of the order parameter. The authors’ modification
of J. Davies’ model was given to display the dissipative formation of short-term
protest activity. The special role of current expectations and beliefs of population information of a protest was noted. In a proposed modification of J.
Davies’ model the authors offer to consider the ratio of negative expectations
and related political reality. The model is verified by materials of the Ukrainian
political process of the last two decades. In this article, the authors show
fundamental consistency between retro-prediction of the model and the real
course of protest activity processes in Ukraine.
