Synergetic Modification of J. Davies’ Model for Simulation of “Sudden” Formation of Protest Activity

Abstract

The paper assesses the suitability of J. Davies’ model for the simulation of protest activity. The authors make an attempt to show the proximity of J. Davies’ model and synergetic paradigm of the order parameter. The authors’ modification of J. Davies’ model was given to display the dissipative formation of short-term protest activity. The special role of current expectations and beliefs of population information of a protest was noted. In a proposed modification of J. Davies’ model the authors offer to consider the ratio of negative expectations and related political reality. The model is verified by materials of the Ukrainian political process of the last two decades. In this article, the authors show fundamental consistency between retro-prediction of the model and the real course of protest activity processes in Ukraine.